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Public sector demand slumps as the government enters shutdown

• On October 1, the US federal government entered a shutdown after negotiations for a new appropriations bill failed.
• During a government shutdown, essential federal government operations, such as law enforcement, air-traffic control, and social security, persist, while nonessential operations are paused and workers involved in these operations are furloughed. Thus, the current shutdown is expected to result in 750,000 federal workers being furloughed, representing a $400 million reduction in daily expenditure by the federal government.
• This significant reduction in federal spending and operations will affect the entire US economy, weakening aggregate demand and slowing economic growth. For example, the 35-day government shutdown in Q1, 2019, reduced aggregate demand in both the public and private sectors, resulting in a 0.2% reduction in GDP growth that quarter.
• The effects of the shutdown are likely to be most acute in markets where the public sector is a major buyer segment, weakening demand and increasing average vendor risk by destabilizing important revenue streams.
• As negotiations for a new appropriations bill to reopen the government remain ongoing, ProcurementIQ will continue to monitor the situation and update this story with the latest information.

Tariffs to negatively impact building and construction components and supplies sector

• The Trump Administration’s reciprocal tariffs, which impose higher tariffs on all products imported from most foreign nations, are set to take effect on August 7, after the rates were finalized on August 1. As a result, most construction material import sources face higher tariffs, including Mexico (25.0%), Canada (35.0%), Turkiye (15.0%), and China (54.0%).
• According to Realtor.com, about 70.0% of the softwood lumber and drywall gypsum (used for drywall) used in residential construction is imported from Canada and Mexico, respectively. According to the New York Times, drywall prices could rise by 22.0%. Other products like wood utility poles, medium-density fiberboard, particleboard, plywood, wood veneers, and wood pulp will also see higher prices as a result.
• The Yale Budget Lab estimates that construction inputs like cement could see a 3.5% increase in price with higher tariffs on imports. Turkiye, Canada, and Mexico, which account for over 65.0% of US imports, face tariff rates of 10.0%, 25.0%, and 25.0%, respectively.
• Specific steel and aluminum tariffs of 50.0% on all US imports are also negatively affecting buyers of building and construction components and supplies like sheet metal, automatic sliding doors, garage doors, ladders, posts and bollards, and more. In 2024, 23.0% of all steel used in the United States was imported from foreign countries such as Canada and Mexico.
• US manufacturers reliant on imported plastic resins from countries like China will not be impacted by tariffs as key resins, like polyethylene, polypropylene, and PET, will be exempt from the reciprocal tariffs. Other construction components and supplies that are compliant with the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement will be exempt from tariffs.

Increased tariffs on copper imports take effect

• On August 1, the Trump administration implemented 50.0% tariffs on imported copper. Chile and Canada will be most impacted by these tariffs, as they account for a combined 87.0% of all copper imports in the United States.
• However, these tariffs are less sweeping than initially expected, only applying to semi-finished copper products, while excluding high-purity refined copper and copper input materials, such as ore and concentrate. As leading importers, such as Chile and Canada, have both high copper mining and refining capacities, they will likely avoid most of these tariffs by either exporting the copper in its unrefined form or refining the copper before exporting it to the United States
• These copper tariff exemptions limit the impact on the electronics and electrical equipment sectors because these applications require refined copper due to its optimal conductive properties.
• Thus, the prices of metal alloys that include copper, consumer products made from copper, tools, plumbing, corrosion-resistant alloys, and construction materials made from copper are forecast to rise by an average of 39.2%, according to the Yale Budget Lab.