Oil & Gas Pipeline Construction
Sourcing Guide & Market Intelligence

Fed lowers rates for the first time in 2025

• On September 17, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower interest rates to a target range of 4.0% to 4.25%, down 0.25% from the rate it had been holding since November of last year.
• Despite indications at the start of the year that steady reductions to the relatively high 4.25% to 4.5% rate were on the horizon, the Fed held off on rate cuts for much of the year due to concerns that the combination of higher tariffs and a reduction in borrowing costs could cause rebounding inflation.
• The September cut to Fed interest rates signals a shift in this strategy, indicating that the Fed now considers weakening employment figures a greater threat than inflation. As a result, FOMC officials have also signaled that two additional rate cuts are likely before the end of the year in an effort to fight unemployment and stimulate the economy.
• Declining Fed funds rates will provide relief to borrowers by lowering the market interest rates for consumer and business loans. This reduction in the cost of borrowing will reduce the cost of many banking and financial services, and may spur increases in demand across the economy.

Tariffs to negatively impact the building and construction machinery sector

• The Trump Administration’s reciprocal tariffs, which apply general tariff rate increases to most countries the United States trades with, are set to take effect on August 7, after the administration finalized the national rates on August 1. As a result, leading sources of imported construction machinery face significantly higher tariff rates, including Japan (15.0%), Mexico (25.0%), South Korea (15.0%), the European Union (15.0%), the United Kingdom (10.0%), China (54.0%), and Canada (35.0%).
• The increase in tariffs on building and construction machinery imported from tariff-impacted countries will add to the price of imports, which are typically passed on to buyers in the form of higher prices. According to The Budget Lab at Yale, the additional tariffs on imports will increase overall prices for machinery and equipment by 13.3%.
• Additionally, the administration has already implemented 50.0% tariffs on all aluminum and steel imported into the United States, with the sole exception of imports from the United Kingdom. These tariffs will increase input costs even for construction machinery suppliers with domestic manufacturing operations.
• According to an April 2025 survey from Construction Equipment Magazine, around half of the respondents reported that the higher tariffs will increase operating costs by up to 15.0%, and more than half said they plan to pass those increases along to buyers.
• As many building and construction machinery brands source parts and components such as steel, engines, and electronics from foreign countries, higher tariff rates will put upward pressure on prices and lead to greater rental rates as manufacturers and dealers pass on costs. In addition, suppliers that source parts from tariff-affected regions may see supply chain disruptions as they seek alternative suppliers to mitigate tariff impacts.

Crude oil prices dip, but natural gas and fuel prices remain volatile in 2025

• Oil prices have been falling with the introduction of higher tariffs and the predicted decline in global demand. The OPEC+ group of countries also announced they would be unwinding production cuts and increasing their collective output target for May by 411,000 barrels per day.
• Trade wars, ongoing conflict between Hamas and Israel, and general unrest in the Middle East are causing uncertainty surrounding oil prices, which has led to volatility in prices. In the third week of May 2025, crude oil prices hit $63.67 per barrel, but volatility remains as geopolitical concerns remain.
• Natural gas prices rallied early in 2025 with colder-than-usual temperatures in the United States and high demand, topping out at $4.68/MMBtu in March. Prices have since fallen with the onset of trade wars and weakening demand projections to $3.64/MMBtu in the third week of May 2025.
• The national average of gasoline prices has been rising slightly due to refinery maintenance/outages and blending issues, hitting a national average of $3.15 per gallon in the third week of May 2025. However, gasoline futures have been volatile, falling due to fears of oversupply and deepening concerns about weakening demand with tariffs, but rising after trade deals.