Cement
Sourcing Guide & Market Intelligence

Public sector demand slumps as the government enters shutdown

• On October 1, the US federal government entered a shutdown after negotiations for a new appropriations bill failed.
• During a government shutdown, essential federal government operations, such as law enforcement, air-traffic control, and social security, persist, while nonessential operations are paused and workers involved in these operations are furloughed. Thus, the current shutdown is expected to result in 750,000 federal workers being furloughed, representing a $400 million reduction in daily expenditure by the federal government.
• This significant reduction in federal spending and operations will affect the entire US economy, weakening aggregate demand and slowing economic growth. For example, the 35-day government shutdown in Q1, 2019, reduced aggregate demand in both the public and private sectors, resulting in a 0.2% reduction in GDP growth that quarter.
• The effects of the shutdown are likely to be most acute in markets where the public sector is a major buyer segment, weakening demand and increasing average vendor risk by destabilizing important revenue streams.
• As negotiations for a new appropriations bill to reopen the government remain ongoing, ProcurementIQ will continue to monitor the situation and update this story with the latest information.

Fed lowers rates for the first time in 2025

• On September 17, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower interest rates to a target range of 4.0% to 4.25%, down 0.25% from the rate it had been holding since November of last year.
• Despite indications at the start of the year that steady reductions to the relatively high 4.25% to 4.5% rate were on the horizon, the Fed held off on rate cuts for much of the year due to concerns that the combination of higher tariffs and a reduction in borrowing costs could cause rebounding inflation.
• The September cut to Fed interest rates signals a shift in this strategy, indicating that the Fed now considers weakening employment figures a greater threat than inflation. As a result, FOMC officials have also signaled that two additional rate cuts are likely before the end of the year in an effort to fight unemployment and stimulate the economy.
• Declining Fed funds rates will provide relief to borrowers by lowering the market interest rates for consumer and business loans. This reduction in the cost of borrowing will reduce the cost of many banking and financial services, and may spur increases in demand across the economy.

Tariffs to negatively impact building and construction components and supplies sector

• The Trump Administration’s reciprocal tariffs, which impose higher tariffs on all products imported from most foreign nations, are set to take effect on August 7, after the rates were finalized on August 1. As a result, most construction material import sources face higher tariffs, including Mexico (25.0%), Canada (35.0%), Turkiye (15.0%), and China (54.0%).
• According to Realtor.com, about 70.0% of the softwood lumber and drywall gypsum (used for drywall) used in residential construction is imported from Canada and Mexico, respectively. According to the New York Times, drywall prices could rise by 22.0%. Other products like wood utility poles, medium-density fiberboard, particleboard, plywood, wood veneers, and wood pulp will also see higher prices as a result.
• The Yale Budget Lab estimates that construction inputs like cement could see a 3.5% increase in price with higher tariffs on imports. Turkiye, Canada, and Mexico, which account for over 65.0% of US imports, face tariff rates of 10.0%, 25.0%, and 25.0%, respectively.
• Specific steel and aluminum tariffs of 50.0% on all US imports are also negatively affecting buyers of building and construction components and supplies like sheet metal, automatic sliding doors, garage doors, ladders, posts and bollards, and more. In 2024, 23.0% of all steel used in the United States was imported from foreign countries such as Canada and Mexico.
• US manufacturers reliant on imported plastic resins from countries like China will not be impacted by tariffs as key resins, like polyethylene, polypropylene, and PET, will be exempt from the reciprocal tariffs. Other construction components and supplies that are compliant with the United States-Canada-Mexico Agreement will be exempt from tariffs.