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Sourcing Guide & Market Intelligence

Public sector demand slumps as the government enters shutdown

• On October 1, the US federal government entered a shutdown after negotiations for a new appropriations bill failed.
• During a government shutdown, essential federal government operations, such as law enforcement, air-traffic control, and social security, persist, while nonessential operations are paused and workers involved in these operations are furloughed. Thus, the current shutdown is expected to result in 750,000 federal workers being furloughed, representing a $400 million reduction in daily expenditure by the federal government.
• This significant reduction in federal spending and operations will affect the entire US economy, weakening aggregate demand and slowing economic growth. For example, the 35-day government shutdown in Q1, 2019, reduced aggregate demand in both the public and private sectors, resulting in a 0.2% reduction in GDP growth that quarter.
• The effects of the shutdown are likely to be most acute in markets where the public sector is a major buyer segment, weakening demand and increasing average vendor risk by destabilizing important revenue streams.
• As negotiations for a new appropriations bill to reopen the government remain ongoing, ProcurementIQ will continue to monitor the situation and update this story with the latest information.

Tariffs to escalate prices for electronics and computing equipment

• The Trump administration’s reciprocating tariffs, which will increase the tariff on all products imported from nearly all US trade partners, are set to take effect on August 7 and are likely to drive price increases across a wide range of sectors.
• The United States is highly reliant on imported electronics, communication equipment, and computing devices, having imported more than $472 billion worth of electronics in 2024, or about half of the total domestic supply. Starting August 7, imports from key computer and electronics producers such as China (54,0%), Japan (15.0%), South Korea (15.0%), Thailand (19.0%), Vietnam (20.0%), and Taiwan (20.0%) will be subject to new tariff rates. Trade deals for many countries are still being negotiated, and these rates are subject to change.
• For this reason, the US electronics industry is highly exposed to price increases and supply chain disruptions when the tariffs take effect. For example, the cost of iPhones, which are predominantly manufactured in China, could rise by as much as 43.0% in response to tariffs, according to projections by Rosenblatt Securities.
• Overall, the Yale Budget Lab anticipates tariffs will increase the average cost of computers and electronics by 18.7% in the short term.
• The tariffs exempt semiconductors, limiting the cost increases for domestic electronics manufacturers, but the lack of domestic electronics assembly capacity means that this exemption will have a limited effect.

Russian invasion of Ukraine is putting additional strain on US chip supply

• Until recently, the United States sourced nearly all of its neon gas (an essential material in the laser imprinting process to produce semiconductors) from Ukrainian and Russian producers. Previous conflicts between the two nations, specifically related to the Crimea conflict in 2014, resulted in a nearly 600.0% increase in the price of neon.
• The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade announced in early June that it would be limiting neon gas exports as part of its sanctions against countries it views as unfriendly. This move will add to lead times and prices for neon.
• Downstream semiconductor manufacturers keep stockpiles of neon gas that have allowed them to continue manufacturing chips, though it is unknown how long these stockpiles will last. Semiconductor manufacturers will likely pay higher prices for neon gas outside Ukraine as global supplies dwindle.