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Public sector demand slumps as the government enters shutdown

• On October 1, the US federal government entered a shutdown after negotiations for a new appropriations bill failed.
• During a government shutdown, essential federal government operations, such as law enforcement, air-traffic control, and social security, persist, while nonessential operations are paused and workers involved in these operations are furloughed. Thus, the current shutdown is expected to result in 750,000 federal workers being furloughed, representing a $400 million reduction in daily expenditure by the federal government.
• This significant reduction in federal spending and operations will affect the entire US economy, weakening aggregate demand and slowing economic growth. For example, the 35-day government shutdown in Q1, 2019, reduced aggregate demand in both the public and private sectors, resulting in a 0.2% reduction in GDP growth that quarter.
• The effects of the shutdown are likely to be most acute in markets where the public sector is a major buyer segment, weakening demand and increasing average vendor risk by destabilizing important revenue streams.
• As negotiations for a new appropriations bill to reopen the government remain ongoing, ProcurementIQ will continue to monitor the situation and update this story with the latest information.

Tariffs to negatively impact the commercial vehicles and components sector

• In June, the Trump Administration implemented 25.0% tariffs on all automobile and automobile parts imported into the United States, except for those imported from the United Kingdom, which face a reduced 10.0% tariff rate. Additionally, the administration raised tariffs on the import of aluminum, copper, and steel to 50.0%, all vital inputs for automotive manufacturing, and raised the tariffs on heavy trucks made outside the United States to 25.0%.
• In 2024, the value of automotive imports totaled $388.9 billion, which accounted for over a quarter of the total US automotive market revenue that year. Thus, these tariffs are likely to significantly increase the cost of motor vehicles, parts, and maintenance services, as both foreign manufacturers and domestic manufacturers with foreign sub-suppliers face higher import costs.
• According to the US International Trade Commission, Mexico and Canada account for 47.4% of motor vehicle imports to the United States, and 54.1% of motor vehicles bodies and parts. According to Anderson Economic Group (AEG), a Michigan-based economic consultancy, the broad-based 25.0% tariff could raise new car prices by $1,000 to $4,000, and up to $10,000 if manufacturers are unable to mitigate the tariff’s impact.
• Germany is a major exporter of crane trucks, vehicles, vehicle seating and interior trim, and other components in the sector. The higher automotive and metals tariffs will mean that many German companies, even those operating in the United States, will face higher costs to import subcomponents to their facilities in the United States.
• According to Telemetry Insights, many auto parts suppliers will be unable to absorb the tariffs or adjust to mitigate the tariff impact (e.g., relocating their facilities or splitting efforts across three countries). The introduction of 50.0% metals tariffs could drive up production costs further.

United States announces new tariffs on all imported aluminum

• In February 2025, the United States announced 25.0% tariffs on all imported aluminum with no exemptions or exceptions. The tariffs took effect on March 12, 2025. On June 4th, these tariffs were increased further to 50%. These tariffs were not impacted by a recent court decision that temporarily suspended duties on certain goods as they were implemented under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
• Previously, countries such as Canada and Mexico, two of the top exporters of aluminum to the United States, had exemptions from tariffs and the rate was only 10.0%. These have now been removed and all imported aluminum, regardless of origin, will be subject to the 50.0% tariff.
• When tariffs on imported aluminum were implemented in March 2018, aluminum prices rose modestly. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), prices rose 1.2% in the year after the tariffs were introduced. Because this market relies on aluminum as an input, it may be impacted by this policy.